avoid thucydides’ trap on japanese dating shows
posted dec 2025
Thucydides’ Trap is a concept in international relations. It uses ancient Greece as a parable to suggest that when a rising power threatens to displace an existing hegemonic power, war is almost inevitable.
It was coined by Professor Graham T Allison as a lens to analyse China-US relations, where he argued that war between the two countries was highly probable.
Thucydides’ Trap has been handily dunked on by historians and political scientists alike, mostly because its methodology far oversimplifies the ways wars have started.
But maybe I can find it a second life in a Japanese dating show!
In Offline Love, Sho and Mimi are the first male-female pair to meet in person1. They hit it off well, and go on dates and all that cute stuff.
By the end of Episode 1, Sho establishes himself as the frontrunner for Mimi’s affections. One could say he’s an existing hegemonic power in the context of Mimi’s dating pool!
But then Aru shows up in Episode 2. He starts off as a random (handsome) stranger who joined the show late, but quickly builds increasingly strong rapport with Mimi. Not only is he a competitor to Sho, but he’s a clear rising power!
(within a few hours...)
Over the next few days, both Sho and Aru compete for Mimi’s affections, with as much fire as polite Japanese guys being filmed can muster2. They’re now ~warring powers!
But they both tilt hard while doing so. Sho just randomly asks a different girl on a date (in defiance???). And Aru gets super possessive and jealous and crashes tf out.
By the end of the show, Mimi chooses neither of them. Both warring powers end the show single.
We see an eerily similar pattern in Badly In Love. Milk and Baby are the first pair to form after sneaking away from the others (and from their responsibilities on the rice cookers) to yap and take polaroid selfies. He’s also chosen by Baby to go on the first “external date” of the show (to the sauna), and clearly establishes himself as the hegemonic power in Baby’s dating pool.
Shortly after, Yanboh arrives (also late and also more “straightforwardly popular”). He meets and then also takes a polaroid selfie with Baby.
rough scratch of evidence
Badly In Love: Yanboh and Milk pursue Baby, then Baby chooses Tsuu Offline Love: Sho and Aru pursue Mimi, they both crash out, Mimi chooses Atsushi